Samenvatting

This dissertation aims to answer the question: Can human rights monitoring contribute to foreseeing and preventing genocide? Genocide prevention has become an important issue, both in the scientific world as well as in international politics. Models of genocide prediction have been established by several genocide scholars, which determine certain phases that precede the final stage of extermination in a genocide and recognize factors that can be indicative of genocide.

Meanwhile human rights organizations have been collecting data on human rights violations all over the world, but their data have so far not been incorporated in the models for genocide prediction. This thesis outlines why the data collected from human rights groups can be relevant and helpful in the development of models for predicting genocide. Human rights violations will by definition be connected to the state, either because they are perpetrated by state actors or because of the negligence of the state to protect human rights. Genocide has a similar nature since in most historical cases it was planned by the state. Therefore, by looking at violations of human rights and by looking at the background of victims and perpetrators an
assessment can be made of whether these violations are indicative of
genocide. The accuracy of the current models can additionally be increased because data collected by human rights organizations will be coming directly from the grassroots level and is up to date, two aspects that are lacking in the current models for genocide prediction. In order to analyse and collect data from global human rights groups, both a system of data collection needs to be established and a model to analyse the data. The technical capacities
are sufficient; software for central data collection of human rights
violations already exists and is available to human rights organizations.
The model of analysis for human rights violations needs to be further
developed, possibly based on existing models for genocide prediction. The factors range, frequency and severity are crucial in this model, since they are able to explain more specifically whether violations are indicative of genocide.
Finally this thesis discusses the possibilities of establishing a centre or institution for genocide prevention. It is possible to establish a new centre that harnesses the capacities of different civil society organisations and is politically independent; the impartial nature of such an institution can contribute to its authority.