Samenvatting

The main purpose of this thesis is to analyse Oasis’s future cash flow more accurately by using @Risk.
Oasis is a complex Excel tool that has been developed by OfficeSpecialisten in cooperation with one of their clients.
Oasis is an analysis tool which analyses future cash flow with the use of macros. By applying @Risk, Oasis’s future
cash flow can be analysed more accurately. @Risk is an Excel add-in which performs risk analysis using simulations to
show many possible outcomes in a spread sheet model and tells how likely they are to occur. This thesis describes:
1) How to defining an appropriate distribution for stochastic parameters.
A manual has been developed. Distributions for annual foreign exchange differences are defined according to this manual.
2) How to set up simulations in Oasis.
Current state of Oasis was unable to simulate future cash flow, endless loops occurred. Oasis is adapted to prevent these endless loops.
3) How to improve accuracy:
The future cash flow can be analysed more accurately by (I) defining appropriate distributions for the remaining stochastic
parameters and (II) defining appropriate correlation between stochastic parameters.